OLDMODEL2.0 Preliminary Daily Report

16:00 CET baseline report for today's NHL slate

Games

2

Confirmed Goalies

1

Expected 3 | Unconfirmed 0

Mean DFO Move

0.09

Star shock 0.00 | as-of 2026-03-26

Chance Shot Feed

0

0 shot prices | 2026-03-27T18:10:29.626694+01:00

Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers

2026-03-27 | 2026-03-27T23:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-03-26

Base numbers

26.5 - 27.4

Base total 53.9 SOG

Base edge +0.99 home

Final live numbers

24.8 - 28.3

Live total 53.1 SOG

Live edge +3.57 home

Matchup fair odds

New York Rangers: 1.51

Chicago Blackhawks: 3.47

Tie: 20.52

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers	Why it moved
Base model	26.46	27.45	Base OLDMODEL2.0 read before tonight-specific input. Base edge +0.99 home.
DFO lineup + goalie	-0.13	+0.16	Chicago Blackhawks: goalie input (-0.11) with Soderblom; New York Rangers: goalie input (+0.11) with Garand.
Schedule baseline	-1.55	+0.73	Chicago Blackhawks: B2B, -1 rest, road trip 3 New York Rangers: +1 rest
Schedule trigger	-1.00	+0.58	Chicago Blackhawks: B2B away-away 121-500 km trip after a loss New York Rangers: 1 rest day home 501-1000 km trip after a loss
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	Chicago Blackhawks: Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. New York Rangers: Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Defense depletion	+0.00	+0.00	Chicago Blackhawks: Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. New York Rangers: Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.01	Chicago Blackhawks: No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. New York Rangers: No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.
Final numbers	24.78	28.35	Live total 53.13 \| live edge +3.57 home.

Before same-day lineup input, the base OLDMODEL2.0 forecast had Chicago Blackhawks at 26.46 and New York Rangers at 27.45, so the base edge already leaned New York Rangers by 0.99 shots.
Tonight-specific layers moved Chicago Blackhawks by -1.68 and New York Rangers by +0.90 shots versus the base forecast.
Schedule impact landed at -1.55 plus trigger -1.00 for Chicago Blackhawks, and +0.73 plus trigger +0.58 for New York Rangers.
Chicago Blackhawks's projected lineup looks close to its usual core, so the lineup layer mostly confirmed the base read.
New York Rangers's projected lineup looks close to its usual core, so the lineup layer mostly confirmed the base read.
Defense absences added +0.00 shots to Chicago Blackhawks and +0.00 to New York Rangers when the opponent blue line looked materially weaker than normal.
Longer-memory roster events added +0.00 for Chicago Blackhawks and +0.01 for New York Rangers, so major trades and long absences do not get forgotten too quickly.
After lineup adjustment, the model still leans to New York Rangers: Chicago Blackhawks 24.78 vs New York Rangers 28.35.
The side edge moved from +0.99 to +3.57 home-minus-away, while total expected shots moved to 53.13.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

No positive-EV Chance shot bet cleared the model at the current scraped prices.

Chicago Blackhawks betting view24.55

Chicago Blackhawks betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 24.55, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 24.5 at fair over 1.99.
Under is playable down to line 25.5 at fair under 1.78.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
21.5	3.20	1.45
22.5	2.70	1.59
23.5	2.31	1.76
24.5	2.01	1.99
25.5	1.78	2.28
26.5	1.60	2.65
27.5	1.47	3.15

New York Rangers betting view28.62

New York Rangers betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 28.62, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 28.5 at fair over 1.97.
Under is playable down to line 29.5 at fair under 1.80.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
25.5	3.24	1.45
26.5	2.72	1.58
27.5	2.33	1.75
28.5	2.03	1.97
29.5	1.80	2.25
30.5	1.62	2.62
31.5	1.47	3.11

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Dense model notes

Pace projection is fairly neutral at 110.0 combined CF.
Projected shot share is close enough that the matchup is mostly balanced.
Core blend is tempering recent form: home -2.1 vs L5, away -2.0 vs L5.
Conversion layer: FF/CF edge -0.046, SF/FF edge -0.016, defensive FF suppression edge +0.004, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012.

Projection anatomy

Metric	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	26.46	27.45	28.48	29.57
Live SOG mean	24.78	28.35	28.48	29.57
Base model line	26.5	27.5	28.5	29.5
Live model line	24.5	28.5	28.5	29.5
CF mean	53.07	56.93	54.00	59.46
FF mean	40.29	42.60	41.64	46.02

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers
FF/CF offense	0.765	0.720
SF/FF offense	0.631	0.615
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.779	0.775
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.674	0.686

Rolling form context

Chicago Blackhawksaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	49.2 (rk 29/32)	0.752 (rk 18/32)	0.676 (rk 7/32)	71.2 (rk 32/32)	0.817	0.687
L10	48.3 (rk 30/32)	0.766 (rk 5/32)	0.649 (rk 14/32)	66.5 (rk 31/32)	0.785	0.682
L20	48.0 (rk 32/32)	0.757 (rk 8/32)	0.635 (rk 24/32)	61.0 (rk 23/32)	0.781	0.665

New York Rangershome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	52.4 (rk 25/32)	0.756 (rk 15/32)	0.631 (rk 22/32)	56.6 (rk 14/32)	0.806	0.719
L10	50.4 (rk 29/32)	0.748 (rk 19/32)	0.631 (rk 24/32)	59.6 (rk 22/32)	0.767	0.698
L20	51.5 (rk 29/32)	0.715 (rk 30/32)	0.631 (rk 26/32)	59.7 (rk 20/32)	0.767	0.688

Chicago Blackhawks full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-03-26)

Updated 2026-03-27T14:09:12.294Z | goalie Soderblom (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Connor Bedard Ryan Greene Anton Frondell
F2	Frank Nazar Tyler Bertuzzi (74.6) Nick Lardis
F3	Ryan Donato (72.1) Andre Burakovsky (75.3) Ilya Mikheyev (74.0)
F4	Sacha Boisvert Teuvo Teravainen (77.2) Landon Slaggert
D1	Alex Vlasic Artyom Levshunov
D2	Wyatt Kaiser Sam Rinzel
D3	Ethan Del Mastro Louis Crevier

New York Rangers full parsed DFO linesVince Mercogliano

Updated 2026-03-27T14:36:17.906Z | goalie Garand (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Mika Zibanejad (84.1) Gabriel Perreault Alexis Lafrenière
F2	Vincent Trocheck (72.9) Will Cuylle Adam Sykora
F3	J.T. Miller (78.5) Tye Kartye Conor Sheary (71.8)
F4	Jonny Brodzinski (70.0) Taylor Raddysh Jaroslav Chmelar
D1	Vladislav Gavrikov (71.8) Adam Fox (75.1)
D2	Will Borgen Braden Schneider
D3	Drew Fortescue Matthew Robertson

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 27.4 (internal line 27.5) | L5-only: 29.6 (L5 line 29.5) Away: 26.5 (internal line 26.5) | L5-only: 28.5 (L5 line 28.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 52.66% (fair 1.90) Away more SOG: 41.94% (fair 2.38) Tie SOG: 5.40% (fair 18.53) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 56.9, Away 53.1, total 110.0 L5 CF: Home 59.5, Away 54.0, total 113.5 Core FF: Home 42.6, Away 40.3 L5 FF: Home 46.0, Away 41.6 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.720 | Away FF/CF 0.765 Home SF/FF 0.615 | Away SF/FF 0.631 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.775 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.779 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.686 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.674 Form windows: New York Rangers: L5: CF/g 52.4 (rk 25/32), FF/CF 0.756, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 56.6 L10: CF/g 50.4 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.748, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 59.6 L20: CF/g 51.5 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.715, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 59.7 Chicago Blackhawks: L5: CF/g 49.2 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.752, SF/FF 0.676, CA/g 71.2 L10: CF/g 48.3 (rk 30/32), FF/CF 0.766, SF/FF 0.649, CA/g 66.5 L20: CF/g 48.0 (rk 32/32), FF/CF 0.757, SF/FF 0.635, CA/g 61.0 Model read: - Pace projection is fairly neutral at 110.0 combined CF. - Projected shot share is close enough that the matchup is mostly balanced. - Core blend is tempering recent form: home -2.1 vs L5, away -2.0 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge -0.046, SF/FF edge -0.016, defensive FF suppression edge +0.004, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012. Live DFO delta: away -1.68, home +0.90.

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres

2026-03-27 | 2026-03-27T23:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-03-26

Base numbers

27.8 - 29.4

Base total 57.1 SOG

Base edge +1.63 home

Final live numbers

27.9 - 30.1

Live total 58.0 SOG

Live edge +2.18 home

Matchup fair odds

Buffalo Sabres: 1.70

Detroit Red Wings: 2.76

Tie: 19.84

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres	Why it moved
Base model	27.75	29.38	Base OLDMODEL2.0 read before tonight-specific input. Base edge +1.63 home.
DFO lineup + goalie	+0.03	+0.04	Detroit Red Wings: goalie input (-0.04) with John Gibson; Buffalo Sabres: goalie input (+0.05) with Lyon.
Schedule baseline	+0.15	+0.68	Detroit Red Wings: +1 rest Buffalo Sabres: -1 rest, home stand
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.79	Detroit Red Wings: No high-confidence schedule trigger fired. Buffalo Sabres: 1 rest day home same-city trip after a loss
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	Detroit Red Wings: Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. Buffalo Sabres: Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Defense depletion	+0.00	+0.00	Detroit Red Wings: Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. Buffalo Sabres: Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	Detroit Red Wings: No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. Buffalo Sabres: No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.
Final numbers	27.93	30.10	Live total 58.03 \| live edge +2.18 home.

Before same-day lineup input, the base OLDMODEL2.0 forecast had Detroit Red Wings at 27.75 and Buffalo Sabres at 29.38, so the base edge already leaned Buffalo Sabres by 1.63 shots.
Tonight-specific layers moved Detroit Red Wings by +0.18 and Buffalo Sabres by +0.73 shots versus the base forecast.
Schedule impact landed at +0.15 plus trigger +0.00 for Detroit Red Wings, and +0.68 plus trigger +0.79 for Buffalo Sabres.
Detroit Red Wings's projected lineup looks close to its usual core, so the lineup layer mostly confirmed the base read.
Buffalo Sabres still carries lineup watch-list risk (Noah Ostlund (F3, GTD)), but the projected skaters are close enough to the usual core that no same-day roster penalty fired.
Defense absences added +0.00 shots to Detroit Red Wings and +0.00 to Buffalo Sabres when the opponent blue line looked materially weaker than normal.
Longer-memory roster events added +0.00 for Detroit Red Wings and +0.00 for Buffalo Sabres, so major trades and long absences do not get forgotten too quickly.
After lineup adjustment, the model still leans to Buffalo Sabres: Detroit Red Wings 27.93 vs Buffalo Sabres 30.10.
The side edge moved from +1.63 to +2.18 home-minus-away, while total expected shots moved to 58.03.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

No positive-EV Chance shot bet cleared the model at the current scraped prices.

Detroit Red Wings betting view27.69

Detroit Red Wings betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 27.69, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 27.5 at fair over 1.95.
Under is playable down to line 28.5 at fair under 1.81.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
24.5	3.29	1.44
25.5	2.76	1.57
26.5	2.36	1.74
27.5	2.05	1.95
28.5	1.81	2.23
29.5	1.63	2.59
30.5	1.48	3.07

Buffalo Sabres betting view30.37

Buffalo Sabres betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 30.37, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 29.5 at fair over 1.80.
Under is playable down to line 30.5 at fair under 1.97.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
27.5	3.10	1.48
28.5	2.62	1.62
29.5	2.25	1.80
30.5	1.97	2.03
31.5	1.75	2.34
32.5	1.58	2.73
33.5	1.45	3.25

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Dense model notes

Model sees a fast game environment at 117.9 combined CF.
Shot edge is modest but clear for Buffalo Sabres (1.6 shots).
Core blend is tempering recent form: home +0.7 vs L5, away +1.2 vs L5.
Conversion layer: FF/CF edge +0.000, SF/FF edge +0.002, defensive FF suppression edge -0.027, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012.

Projection anatomy

Metric	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	27.75	29.38	26.52	28.67
Live SOG mean	27.93	30.10	26.52	28.67
Base model line	27.5	29.5	26.5	28.5
Live model line	27.5	30.5	26.5	28.5
CF mean	56.98	60.91	54.35	61.32
FF mean	42.35	45.06	40.62	44.57

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres
FF/CF offense	0.760	0.761
SF/FF offense	0.645	0.646
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.718	0.745
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.641	0.652

Rolling form context

Detroit Red Wingsaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	59.8 (rk 10/32)	0.783 (rk 4/32)	0.667 (rk 9/32)	55.4 (rk 12/32)	0.733	0.650
L10	58.3 (rk 15/32)	0.779 (rk 1/32)	0.648 (rk 15/32)	58.2 (rk 19/32)	0.718	0.641
L20	59.0 (rk 13/32)	0.751 (rk 12/32)	0.643 (rk 23/32)	59.4 (rk 19/32)	0.708	0.642

Buffalo Sabreshome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	55.0 (rk 21/32)	0.716 (rk 26/32)	0.655 (rk 15/32)	57.4 (rk 16/32)	0.756	0.659
L10	59.4 (rk 14/32)	0.739 (rk 21/32)	0.647 (rk 16/32)	55.2 (rk 11/32)	0.737	0.631
L20	59.2 (rk 12/32)	0.760 (rk 6/32)	0.650 (rk 18/32)	58.5 (rk 16/32)	0.758	0.663

Detroit Red Wings full parsed DFO linesAnsar Khan

Updated 2026-03-27T12:55:14.496Z | goalie John Gibson (Confirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Dylan Larkin (76.4) J.T. Compher (72.3) Lucas Raymond
F2	Andrew Copp (72.5) Alex DeBrincat (75.2) Patrick Kane (80.1)
F3	Emmitt Finnie Marco Kasper James van Riemsdyk (74.9)
F4	Mason Appleton (69.5) David Perron (75.3) Dominik Shine
D1	Simon Edvinsson Moritz Seider
D2	Ben Chiarot (73.8) Justin Faulk (74.1)
D3	Albert Johansson Jacob Bernard-Docker

Buffalo Sabres full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-03-25)

Updated 2026-03-26T14:04:54.439Z | goalie Lyon (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Tage Thompson (68.5) Peyton Krebs Alex Tuch (73.4)
F2	Ryan McLeod Jason Zucker (74.6) Jack Quinn
F3	Josh Norris Noah Ostlund [GTD] Josh Doan
F4	Sam Carrick (72.7) Zach Benson Beck Malenstyn (73.2)
D1	Mattias Samuelsson Rasmus Dahlin (73.9)
D2	Owen Power Bowen Byram
D3	Logan Stanley Conor Timmins (73.0)

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 29.4 (internal line 29.5) | L5-only: 28.7 (L5 line 28.5) Away: 27.8 (internal line 27.5) | L5-only: 26.5 (L5 line 26.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 55.92% (fair 1.79) Away more SOG: 38.91% (fair 2.57) Tie SOG: 5.17% (fair 19.34) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 60.9, Away 57.0, total 117.9 L5 CF: Home 61.3, Away 54.3, total 115.7 Core FF: Home 45.1, Away 42.3 L5 FF: Home 44.6, Away 40.6 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.761 | Away FF/CF 0.760 Home SF/FF 0.646 | Away SF/FF 0.645 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.745 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.718 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.652 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.641 Form windows: Buffalo Sabres: L5: CF/g 55.0 (rk 21/32), FF/CF 0.716, SF/FF 0.655, CA/g 57.4 L10: CF/g 59.4 (rk 14/32), FF/CF 0.739, SF/FF 0.647, CA/g 55.2 L20: CF/g 59.2 (rk 12/32), FF/CF 0.760, SF/FF 0.650, CA/g 58.5 Detroit Red Wings: L5: CF/g 59.8 (rk 10/32), FF/CF 0.783, SF/FF 0.667, CA/g 55.4 L10: CF/g 58.3 (rk 15/32), FF/CF 0.779, SF/FF 0.648, CA/g 58.2 L20: CF/g 59.0 (rk 13/32), FF/CF 0.751, SF/FF 0.643, CA/g 59.4 Model read: - Model sees a fast game environment at 117.9 combined CF. - Shot edge is modest but clear for Buffalo Sabres (1.6 shots). - Core blend is tempering recent form: home +0.7 vs L5, away +1.2 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge +0.000, SF/FF edge +0.002, defensive FF suppression edge -0.027, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012. Live DFO delta: away +0.18, home +0.73.